Seven development trends of the hottest domestic i

2022-08-05
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Five golden years of domestic industrial robots! Seven development trends must be seen

1. Ranking list of world robot powers: the first place is actually her

according to the statistics of the international robotics Association, the latest data show that in 2015, there were 66 robot devices for every 10000 workers in the manufacturing industry, and only one year later, the number climbed to 77. The foreign media found that this trend continues to rise through the investigation on the automation of these machines, It seems that the era of robots completely replacing human work is getting closer and closer to us

it is hard for many people to imagine that the highest degree of automation in the world is still in Asia, South Korea. According to statistics, 631 robot devices are used in factories for auxiliary work in South Korea for every 10000 people. Most robots are used in industrial departments and electronic engineering

2. Domestic industrial robots have entered the golden five years! From the middle and lower reaches, four families, including KUKA abb, etc.

stimulated by the strategic layout of made in China 2025 and the structural shortage of the labor market, China's robot industry has entered a period of rapid growth. China has become the world's largest consumer market for industrial robots since 2013, and has maintained so far. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the output of industrial robots in China reached 130000 in 2017, a year-on-year increase of 8%. Some analysts say that the compound growth rate of the robot market will reach about 20% in the next three years, and it is expected to reach 151.1 billion yuan by 2020

it is worth noting that the golden development period of China's industrial robots before 2015 mainly benefited from foreign brands such as the four global families in the robot industry represented by ABB, KUKA, FANUC and Yaskawa electric. In recent years, with the promotion of localization of robot body and core parts, the acceleration of cost reduction (shortened investment payback period), artificial substitution and import substitution, the national brand leader in China's industrial robot industry is ushering in a golden age

3. The payback period of robot investment is significantly shortened

firstly, compared with manpower, industrial robots have the characteristics of low cost, high efficiency and 24-hour work. In recent years, with the rising labor cost in China, the labor advantage of China's manufacturing industry is not obvious, and the manufacturing industry urgently needs to transform to intelligence. Industrial robots show a strong development trend. Considering that the average efficiency of the robot can replace 2 workers and can work 24 hours, the current investment recovery cycle of the robot is about 2 years

in addition to the cost advantage, industrial robots can generally achieve a motion accuracy of less than 0.1mm, and their load capacity, stability and reliability are better than those of manpower. They can not only complete high-intensity fine processes, but also ensure the stability of product quality. For example, with robot polishing, the yield can be increased from 87% to 93%. The stability of product quality brought by robot makes the application expand continuously. According to the classification of downstream applications, at present, industrial robots are most widely used in the automobile manufacturing and electronic industries, which have high requirements for load and precision. Other application fields include rubber and plastic industry, foundry industry, food industry, etc

4. Business classification of 437 domestic industrial robot enterprises

the ratio of system integration market to ontology market has continued to decline in the past five years. According to statistics, in 2017, the domestic robot body market is expected to be about 32billion yuan, the system integration market is about 53.5 billion yuan, and the core parts market is about 21billion yuan; The ratio of the three is 1:1.7:0.6. (considering that the core parts account for about 70% of the cost of cellulose plastic of the robot body as the strongest plastic among thermoplastics, and the gross profit margin of the robot body is%

5. The growth rate of robot integration is lower than that of ontology.

in recent years, the demand of China's robot market has grown rapidly, with the growth rate and market share far exceeding that of other countries. China has become the largest robot market in the world for five consecutive years

considering that the decline of robot price will stimulate the market growth, Zhongtai Securities believes that the robot sales in China is expected to exceed the industrial planning target (close to the IFR forecast value) in the next three years, and the compound growth rate of annual sales is% by 2020. If the injection speed of robot body sales accelerates, the contraction rate is expected to reach 56billion yuan. Considering that the ratio of system integration to ontology is about 1.7:1, the corresponding system integration market is 95.1 billion yuan. The robot market totaled 151.1 billion yuan

6. Two major markets, automobile manufacturing and 3C electronics, will bring a high outlook to the industry

industrial robots in China are widely used in automobile, electronics, plastics, food, metal processing and other industries. At present, they are mainly developed in the form of automobile + electronic two wheel drive, accounting for 72% of the total. Among them, the proportion of 3C electronics increased rapidly from 18% in 2012 to 29% in 2016

although about 70% of the global 3C production capacity is concentrated in China, the degree of automation is low. At present, the robot density in 3C industry is only 11 sets/10000 employees, while the robot density in Japan and South Korea exceeds 1200 sets/10000 employees. Zhongtai Securities believes that the 3C industry has high prosperity, short product cycle, fast upgrading, and large room for robot density improvement. It is expected to continue its high growth in the future

7. The transfer of the semiconductor industry chain will bring about a substantial increase in the demand for clean robots

since 2016, due to the joint promotion of technological innovations such as mobile applications, IOT, AI and 5g, semiconductors have actively helped customers solve problems, and the industry continues to grow. Due to the national strategic focus and industrial capital support, the semiconductor industry represented by integrated circuits and panels has shifted to the mainland. According to semi estimates, a total of 62 front-end semiconductor Fabs were put into operation in the world in, of which 26 were located in Chinese Mainland, accounting for 42%

the following is a detailed analysis of the gap between the core technologies of Chinese and foreign industrial robots, that is, controllers, servo motors and reducers

1. The gap between domestic and foreign controllers is the smallest

the controller is the brain of the robot, which issues and transmits action instructions. Including hardware and software: hardware is the industrial control board card, including some main control units, signal processing parts and other circuits, which have been mastered by domestic brands; The software part mainly includes control algorithm, secondary development, etc. domestic brands still have a gap in stability, response speed, ease of use, etc

2. Servo system foreign-funded enterprises have absolute advantages

according to the white paper on the development of China's robot industry (2016 Edition), more than 80% of servo motors and drives are imported, mainly from Japan, Europe and the United States. Japanese brands have monopolized the small and medium-sized OEM (equipment manufacturing) market with good product performance and highly competitive prices

3. Market share of domestic robot server

the reducer is used to accurately control the robot action and transmit greater torque. At present, the robot reducer Market is highly monopolized, and the domestic reducer cannot be fully imported during the popularization period

there are two types of reducers: RV reducers installed at heavy load positions such as base, boom and shoulder, and harmonic reducers installed at light load positions such as forearm, wrist or hand. RV Reducer is monopolized by nabotsk, Japan, and harmonic reducer is dominated by hamenaco, Japan

4. Market share of domestic robot reducers

however, after several years of development, domestic robot manufacturers have gradually risen. At present, they are rapidly expanding their production capacity, and have achieved independent research and development and market promotion in some core parts (servo motors, controllers, etc.)

the advantages of domestic robot body manufacturing are gradually being established. The products are upgraded from medium and low-end robots (such as SCARA) to medium and high-end robots (such as six axis, high precision, heavy load). In addition, the advantages are consolidated in the market application of system integration services, and the domestic brands are expected to gradually rise against the background of the rapid development of the industry

5. Domestic enterprises are constantly trying to break through the core parts of robots

at the time of the global automation wave and the strategic layout of made in China 2025, the demand for industrial robots in the manufacturing industry is rising, and investors will bet on the layout of robots driven by the huge market with high return on investment and rapid renewal. Although the four families still monopolize the machine in the core technology, domestic industrial robot manufacturers are gradually rising and will enter the next five-year golden development period

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